Ekonomi Dunia yang Melambat (1)

Saya sedang mencari jas yang berwarna hitam untuk dipakai dalam pernikahan keponakan saya dalam waktu dekat ini. Sebenarnya saya sudah punya 2 jas, sayangnya keduanya berwarna biru muda. Jadi kurang cocok untuk acara tersebut.

Mencari jas itu mudah-mudah gampang. Sepuluh tahun lalu adik saya memberi saya jas Hugo Boss. Diantara semua jas yang pernah saya miliki, jas yang diberinya adalah jas yang paling saya sukai. Adik saya yang satu ini punya selera yang tinggi. Dia bisa membedakan antara barang designer yang asli dengan tiruan dalam seklebatan saja. Dia bisa membedakan barang bagus atau barang palsu dengan seklebatan saja. Dia bilang perbedaan antara barang bagus dan barang asli adalah pada detailnya. Kalau tas, lihat line-nya, reslitingnya, dan pernik-perniknya, buatannya halus dan juga terbuat dari bahan yang berkualitas tinggi. Kalau baju, lihat kancingnya. Begitulah katanya. Lama-lama saya tahu juga bagaimana membedakan barang bagus dan tiruan.

Dalam 4 minggu lalu ada seorang teman ikut jalan pagi di Senayan. Acara ini biasanya diakhiri dengan kuliner. Ketika selesai jalan pagi in, teman ini pergi mengambil tasnya di mobilnya, karena kami akan menggunakan 2 mobil van saja untuk bersepuluh. Saya agak tersentak ketika melihat tasnya. Saya katakan, kok berani meninggalkan tas seperti itu di mobil. Saya taksir harga tas itu adalah kelas dari Rp 30-50 juta. Mendengar komentar saya, dia hanya tersenyum. Dia seorang wanita yang kariernya sukses, dermawan, punya selera dan selalu menjaga penampilannya.

Jaket/jas jaket Hugo Boss, Ralph Lauren atau Armani bukan jaket yang murah. Saya baru saja melihat, jas Hugo Boss dibandrol Rp 15 juta. Itupun bukan jenis yang pernah saya punya dulu. Walaupun jas/jaket semacam itu mahal, kebanyakan orang lebih suka memakai jas/jaket Hugo Boss, Ralph Lauren atau Armani dari pada jaket pelampung. Yang pasti tidak akan ada ke kantor menggunakan jaket pelampung. Bahkan, jaket pelampung adalah benda yang sangat tidak diharapkan penggunaannya. Walaupun kalau anda berpergian dengan pesawat udara, pramugari selalu memperagakan cara penggunaan jaket pelampung ini. Dan anda berdoa agar tidak perlu menggunakannya.

Saya hampir 1 tahun ini memakai jaket pelampung seperti menunggu datangnya banjir atau tenggelamnya kapal. Orang-orang melihat saya seperti seorang yang aneh, seperti halnya juga nabi Nuh yang membuat kapal di daratan, bahkan di atas bukit! Pernyataan ini tentu saja bukan secara harfiah melainkan dalam arti kiasan saja. Dalam karier, beberapa kesempatan untuk memperoleh penghasilan yang lebih tinggi 20% - 30% tidak diraih, tabungan juga pada posisi safe-mode, yaitu sebagian besar cash di bank yang bonafide dan masih tersisa sedikit emas sebagai hedge kalau massa-panik lari ke emas. Mau beli rumah (tukar rumah) ditunda dulu.

Di awal tahun 2011, EOWI menetapkan untuk memfokuskan pengamatan di beberapa hal yang akan menjadi penggerak arah ekonomi global (POKOK-POKOK PEMIKIRAN UNTUK TAHUN 2011). Poin-poin itu adalah:

a. Pertama mengenai kota-kota di US berpotensi yang akan bangkrut/gagal bayar hutang

b. Krisis hutang negara-negara di zone Eropa

c. Kenaikan suku bunga pinjaman dan pengetatan kredit di Cina

d. Bubble properti di Canada dan Australia yang sudah matang dan siap pecah

e. Penguatan US dollar

Untuk poin a dan e masih belum nampak tanda-tanda dimulainya. Tetapi yang lain, nampaknya apa yang telah lama nantikan mulai menampakan batang hidungnya.

CINA: SLOWS DOWN

Sejak krisis 2007-2009 pemerintah Cina mengucurkan $600 milyar paket stimulus. Masyarakat persahaman Cina tidak mempercayai stimulus ini akan ada dampaknya terhadap kinerja perusahaan. Indeks harga saham Shanghai bergerak relatif sideways. Padahal sektor properti dan konstruksi berkobar merah membara. Antara bursa saham dan sektor konstruksi di Cina terjadi divergen yang terbesar yang pernah saya lihat. Sektor properti yang dimaksud di sini termasuk sektor-sektor penunjangnya seperti komoditi bahan tambang, energi dan sejenisnya. Investor bursa Shanghai nampaknya cukup rasionil dan bersikap menahan diri. Kenyataannya banyak apartemen kosong dan gedung-gedung komersial yang kosong, membuat mereka tidak bullish terhadap bursa Shanghai.

Crisis in China: 64 million empty apartments

09/15/2010

If the housing bubble bursts, millions of middle income families lose their savings. Premier Wen tells the Economic Forum in Tianjin, that "stabilizing house prices" is the "essential" duty for every local government. But experts doubt that local governments will collaborate.

Beijing (AsiaNews) - " Stabilising house prices is an essential task for every level of government in China" Premier Wen Jiabao, said on 13th September at the World Economic Forum in Tianjin, China, calling on all governments to address without delay the serious problem of housing bubble. Statistics show that there are at least 64 million uninhabited apartments for 6 months or more in the country.

Analysts observe that based on the average Chinese family of 3 (parents with a child), to 64 million apartment are the equivalent to homes for 192 million people. For years Chinese have been investing savings in property, seen as a safe haven from inflation. In fact bank deposits guarantee interest of only 2.25%, lower than inflation, which for months has been at more than 3%. The Chinese stock market is volatile and has seen sharp highs and lows in recent months, while the Shanghai stock market has yielded poor results. In 2009 property prices in major cities saw increases of up to 50%.

Real estate investments are also favoured by cheap labour and land and low interest bank loans to both builders and buyers. Moreover Beijing has long realized that increases in property values are fictitious, supported by a speculation based solely on the demand to buy as a safe haven for investment but not as the result of effective housing demand market. For this the government has tried to "cool down" real estate prices, by imposing more taxes and less incentives to buy.

In the Communist Party of China’s paper People's Daily, economist Yi Xianrong warns that "many investors rely on a constant increase in prices in the housing market. But the market is overheated, this is a serious threat to the Chinese economy."

Wen agrees and in Tianjin said that "the issue is not just a housing problem but also an economic issue of the standard of living of the population that reflects on social stability”.

Among other things, the Chinese do not like to rent apartments, preferring to live in purchased property. The fear is that if prices are kept artificially high by speculation in the near future the surplus of homes compared to the actual housing needs will cause a collapse in prices. This could have a possible knock-on effect for the millions of middle-class families whose savings are in property.

Frank Yao, a Neuberger Berman expert, said that "when property prices become less affordable, investors could collapse": these investors are mostly households that can not afford to lose everything or to plan in the long term, but who need to be able dispose of their savings if necessary.

For this reason, many economists say the problem is not "if" the housing market is a bubble, but "when" it will explode. Some believe that this time may not too far off.

Artikel ini cukup menarik. Perhatikan pada kata-kata yang diberi tekanan. Ada 64 juta apartemen kosong, yang seharusnya bisa memuat 194 juta penduduknya. Itu berarti 14% dari populasi. Apakah ini bubble? Apartemen yang cukup untuk 14% penduduk masih kosong artinya booming properti di Cina selama ini hanyalah untuk spekulasi saja yang didasari mitos bahwa harga properti selalu naik. Bukan didasari oleh kebutuhan riil. Kemudahan-kemudahan yang diberikan pemerintah memungkinkan terjadinya bubble ini. Pada saatnya pemerintah melakukan pengetatan, bubble akan pecah.

Fokus yang sejak awal tahun menjadi perhatian EOWI untuk Cina adalah pengetatan moneter Cina oleh pemerintah. Dan sejak Desember 2010 lalu sudah beberapa kali bank sentral Cina menaikkan suku bunganya dan menetapkan kenaikan cadangan bank. Dengan kata lain pengetatan. Inflasi akibat dari spekulasi dan menurunnya permintaan barang untuk dieksport membuat otoritas keuangan Cina harus mengetatkan kredit agar Cina tidak mengalami crash landing.

Dalam pengendalian ekonomi, tidak banyak orang berpikir bahwa ekonomi bukan sains, tetapi teknik meraba-raba, seperti sex. Awalnya memang meraba-raba, tetapi sering kebabasan. Apakah bank sentral Cina sudah kebabasan? Bloomberg melansir berita bahwa bank-bank komersial Cina kalang kabut menaikkan cadangannya agar bisa memenuhi persyaratan yang di tetapkan bank sentralnya. Suku bunga antar bank melonjak, menandakan krisis keuangan mulai merasuki Cina.

China Money Rate Reaches Three-Year High as Bill Sale Suspended

By Bloomberg News - Jun 22, 2011

China’s money-market rate climbed to the highest level in more than three years as a worsening cash crunch prompted the central bank to suspend a bill sale.

The seven-day repurchase rate, which measures interbank funding availability, has more than doubled since June 14, when the People’s Bank of China ordered lenders to set aside more money as reserves for a sixth time this year. The central bank suspended a sale of bills tomorrow, according to a statement on its website today.

“Banks have to hoard cash to meet the regulator’s capital or loan-to-deposit requirements by the end of every quarter,” said Liu Junyu, a bond analyst at China Merchants Bank Co., the nation’s sixth-largest lender. “So we won’t see the shortage easing.”

The seven-day repo rate gained 47 basis points, or 0.47 percentage point, to 8.81 percent as of the 4:30 p.m. close in Shanghai, according to a weighted average rate compiled by the National Interbank Funding Center. It touched 8.93 percent, the highest level since October 2007.

The 14-day repo rate declined 125 basis points to 7.34 percent, the biggest drop since Feb. 1. The slump in longer-term rates shows the cash shortage will probably ease from the start of next month, said Liu. A total of 372 billion yuan ($57.6 billion) of central bank bills and repurchase agreements will mature next month, compared with 601 billion yuan in June, he said.

One-year interest-rate swaps, the fixed cost needed to receive the floating seven-day repurchase rate, rose eight basis points to 3.94 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. They touched 3.97 percent, the highest level since Feb. 22.

The yield on the 2.77 percent government bond due May 2012 gained two basis points to 3.63 percent, according to the Interbank Funding Center.

Suku bunga pinjaman antar-bank meningkat, bank-bank komersial kalang-kabut mencari cash untuk memenuhi persyaratan yang digariskan bank sentral. Apakah Cina akan mengahadapi krisis kredit? Waktu akan menentukannya.

Dampak pengetatan ini dan juga menurunnya permintaan barang di dunia sudah mulai terasa, seperti yang dilangsir bloomberg beberapa minggu lalu.

China Manufacturing May Slow on Tightening Steps

A Chinese manufacturing index fell to its lowest level in 10 months, adding to signs that economic growth is cooling after the government raised interest rates and curbed lending to rein in inflation.

The preliminary purchasing managers’ index compiled by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics dropped to 51.1 in May from a final reading of 51.8 in April. A number above 50 indicates expansion.

Stocks in China extended declines after the report, with the benchmark index dropping to its lowest since February, on concern the government’s measures to tame inflation will damp growth and corporate earnings. Vice Premier Wang Qishan reiterated this month that the government’s top priority is to control price increases.

Manufaturing indeks Cina telah jatuh ke level terendah selama 10 bulan terakhir. Sebenarnya hal ini sudah nampak dari menurunnya Baltic Dry index yang pernah dibahas di Bubble Yang Masih Bertahan (II) – Sektor Properti Cina & Komoditi. Seperti yang diuraikan dalam analisa tersebut, dampak pelambatan ekonomi Cina akan memukul sektor komoditi. Saya pikir komoditi sudah mencapai peaknya atau dekat dengan peaknya dan kejatuhannya pada koreksi ini akan lebih dalam dari pada yang terjadi di tahun 2009.

Thursday, June 9, 2011

Chinese Real Estate Bubble Finally Imploding?

The warnings of successful shorts like Jim Chanos, old Asia hands like Frank Verneroso, and economists like Victor Shih and Michael Pettis have failed to curb enthusiasm for the belief that the rise of China is inevitable and unstoppable. As someone who was deeply involved with Japan when it was seen as destined to replace the sclerotic US, I’ve learned to regard more or less straight line growth projections with considerable skepticism. (Update: I think the US is a mess, but that does not mean that the China bull case is not a tad overdone).

China has accomplished the impressive feat of bringing literally hundreds of millions out of poverty in a comparatively short time frame. It has also studied the Japanese playbook and managed to avoid some of its pitfalls (of course, it has the advantage of not being a military protectorate of the US), in particular refusing to liberalize its financial markets (some accounts of the Japanese bubble and burst give considerable weight to overly rapid deregulation and the growth of what was then called zaitech, or financial speculation). is also hostile to neoclassical economists.

China escaped much of the impact of the global financial crisis by ramping up investment even higher than its pre-crisis level. It now has investment approaching 50% of GDP, an unheard of level on a sustained basis. A big chunk of that is housing related (housing is an estimated 13.5% of GDP), and prices have long been considerably out of line with incomes, a telltale sign of a bubble. In Beijing, admittedly one of the hottest markets, an average priced new apartment was equal to 57 years of average worker savings (and if you tried to pay for it with a super-long dated mortgage, you’d be in hock even longer, since you would also need to cover the interest charges).

Another warning sign is inventory overhang; the Wall Street Journal reports tonight that Standard Chartered forecasts that level of unsold apartments in secondary cities will amounts to roughly 20 months of sales by year end (and that’s before considering that many of the apartments are being acquired as investments rather than for use).

The Journal story tonight provides evidence that the Chinese housing market is going into reverse. A nine-city price index by the firm Dragonomics shows housing prices in April 4.9% lower than the level a year prior (the increase in 2010 was 21.5%). A consultancy, Sofun, has property prices rising an average of 5.1% over the past twelve months, but that represents a slowdown. Standard Chartered projects that housing prices in some second-tier cities will fall 10% to 20%.

Harga apartemen rata-rata sudah melambung sehingga untuk mencicilnya, rata-rata perlu waktu 57 tahun. Artinya, seseorang tidak akan pernah bisa terlepas dari hutang pembelian rumah. Jangan pikir membeli tunai. Tidak heran kalau banyak apartemen yang kosong. Dengan besarnya porsi perumahan terhadap GDP yang 13.5% serta porsi konstruksi sampai 50% dari GDP, perlambatan di sektor-sektor ini akan terasa ke mana-mana.

Perlambatan ini membuat kami di EOWI merasa lega. Jaket pelampung yang dikenakan berpeluang ada gunanya. Cina yang selama ini kami anggap sebagai kuda hitam, yang membuat perkiraan kami salah, akhirnya harus berhenti berlari. Ketidak-bijaksanaan pemerintah Cina untuk tetap mengucurkan liquiditas sehingga bubble komoditi kembali menggembung, membuat harga-harga bahan komoditi naik kembali – yang diikuti dengan harga bahan konsumsi kebutuhan pokok. Dampaknya tentu memukul golongan ekonomi bawah dan menengah dunia. Rakyat di wilayah Timur-Tengah banyak memberontak. Eropa yang masih belum pulih pun bergolak terus.

Berita dari bloomberg menceritakan adanya kenaikan barang-barang produsen dan makanan di Cina pada bulan May 2011 ini. Sedangkan kenaikkan barang-barang konsumen non-makanan (selain properti dan perumahan tentunya) mengalami percepatan. Harga rumah mengalami penurunan dan harga saham masih tidak kemana-mana artinya harga asset turun, sedangkan harga kebutuhan yang lain turun. Itu menyakitkan. Barang pabrikan yang dijual Cina tidak naik membuat penghasilan mereka tertahan, sedangkan bahan makanan dan energi yang harus mereka konsumsi naik terus. Artinya kwalitas hidup turun atau pemiskinan namanya.

China Raises Reserve Ratio After Industrial Production Outpaces Estimates

(Komentar EOWI: Apa tidak salah judul nih?)

Lu estimates today’s move will drain about 370 billion yuan ($57 billion) from the banking system.

China has raised interest rates four times since September and allowed the yuan to gain about 1.6 percent against the dollar this year. Inflation has exceeded the government’s 4 percent target each month this year as companies including McDonald’s Corp. boost prices.

Still, the pace of inflation remains the slowest of the so-called BRIC nations, with the latest data showing annual rates of 6.6 percent for Brazil, 9.6 percent for Russia and 9.1 percent for India. China’s peak this year may be “slightly above” 6 percent in June, Bank of America said. (Komentar EOWI: bagaimana “slowest” kalau angkanya 6,6%, 9,6% dan 9,1%)

Food prices in China rose 11.7 percent in May from a year earlier as pork costs surged and vegetable prices rebounded late in the month, the statistics bureau said today. Low-income nations from India to Algeria are struggling with food prices that climbed to a record in February according to a United Nations gauge. The Food and Agricultural Organization index was up 37 percent in May from a year earlier.

Inflation Expectations

“Inflation pressure is still large,” Li Daokui, an academic adviser to the People’s Bank of China, said on his microblog today. “My personal view is that the policy focus should be on considering raising the deposit rate to adjust inflation expectations.”

China’s producer prices rose a more-than-estimated 6.8 percent in May and non-food inflation accelerated to 2.9 percent, the fastest pace in at least six years, today’s data showed..........

........The government is weighing the threat to growth from tightening measures against the danger that rising food and housing costs may fuel social instability. In March, Premier Wen Jiabao said a combination of inflation, corruption, and the gap between rich and poor could “even affect the government’s hold on power.”

Signs of unrest include clashes involving migrant street vendors in Zengcheng, Guangdong, this month and riots last month in Inner Mongolia. The government has detained activists this year after calls for so-called “jasmine” rallies, inspired by revolts in the Middle East and North Africa.

Jika sampai sekarang di masyarakat Cina masih tidak terdengar suaranya, mungkin karena dibungkam. Cina adalah negara totalitarian yang bisa memenjarakan suara-suara opposisi. Dan beritanya bisa dibungkam. Beberapa waktu lalu Cina memberlakukan kontrol harga terhadap supermarket-supermarket besar seperti Carrefour. Kemudian juga kontrol serta sensor terhadap media TV seperti yang dilangsir oleh Financial Times.

The Chinese government has stepped up censorship of local television in a sign of the broadening of a political crackdown that has landed many dissidents in jail.

China has severely clamped down on activists since February when an anonymous online appeal called for demonstrations along the lines of the “jasmine revolution” sweeping north Africa and the Middle East.

Authorities have detained scores of human rights lawyers, activists, and writers. They have also arrested Ai Weiwei, the contemporary artist.

Seperti yang diberitakan, sekelompok orang ada yang menginginkan revolusi seperti di Timur Tengah dan Afrika Utara. Dan pemerintah Cina menangkapi mereka ini – ahli hukum, seniman, penulis dan aktivis hak asazi manusia. Tidak heran kalau Cina masih nampak adem-ayem saja. Mungkin baranya seperti bara dalam sekam.

Nampak adem ayem? Tidak juga. Pada pertengahan bulan Juni 2011 ini terjadi aksi protes yang brutal, termasuk terjadinya pemboman-pemboman bangunan pemerintah.

BEIJING—June 14, 2011. A wave of violent unrest in urban areas of China over the past three weeks is testing the Communist Party's efforts to maintain control over an increasingly complex and fractious society, forcing it to repeatedly deploy its massive security forces to contain public anger over economic and political grievances.

The simultaneous challenge to social order in several cities from the industrial north to the export-oriented south represents a new threat for China's leaders in the politically sensitive run-up to a once-a-decade leadership change next year, even though for now the violence doesn't appear to be coordinated.

In the latest disturbance, armed police were struggling to restore order in a manufacturing town in southern China Monday after deploying tear gas and armored vehicles against hundreds of migrant workers who overturned police cars, smashed windows and torched government buildings there the night before.

A video image shows people running during clashes between riot police and rioting Sichuan migrant workers in Zengcheng Sunday.

The protests, which began Friday night in Zengcheng, in the southern province of Guangdong, followed serious rioting in another city in central China last week, plus bomb attacks on government facilities in two other cities in the past three weeks, and ethnic unrest in the northern region of Inner Mongolia last month.

Antigovernment protests have become increasingly common in China in recent years, according to the government's own figures, but they have been mainly confined to rural areas, often where farmers have been thrown off their land by property developers and local officials.

The latest unrest, by contrast, involves violent protests from individuals and large crowds in China's cities, where public anger is growing over issues including corruption and police abuses.

There is no evidence to suggest the recent violence is part of a coordinated movement—the party's greatest fear—nor do the events threaten its grip on power given the strength of China's security apparatus, and its booming economy, analysts say. They are nonetheless troubling for China's government which, unnerved by unrest in the Arab world, has detained dozens of dissidents since appeals for a "Jasmine Revolution" in China began circulating online in February. The Mideast uprisings so far haven't inspired similar mass protests in China.

Authorities have turned to displays of raw power, deploying paramilitary police and armored vehicles in at least three cities in as many weeks, to prevent the violence from spiraling further as protesters have repeatedly directed their anger at government buildings, often ostentatious symbols of power.

What connects the violence is the way that a flashpoint—in the case of Inner Mongolia, the death of a Mongol at the hands of a Han Chinese truck driver, and in southern China, the assault by security personnel on a pregnant migrant worker—sets off much wider conflagrations.

The disturbances could reflect badly on President Hu Jintao, who has tried to promote the concept of a "harmonious society" and who is due to retire as party chief next year.

"There's an increasing sense of frustration that [leaders] are unable to put out a consistent, unifying message, even within the Party," said Kerry Brown, head of the Asia program at Chatham House, who met senior party officials last week. "Local officials are overreacting partly because of a lack of clear leadership at the top."

But the unrest is likely to strengthen the clout of Zhou Yongkang, who technically ranks ninth of nine on the Politburo Standing Committee but wields huge power as he oversees the police, intelligence agencies, prosecutors and courts.

Social unrest has been rising steadily in recent years: In 2007, China had more than 80,000 "mass incidents," up from above 60,000 in 2006, according to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, although many involved no more than a few dozen people protesting against local officials. No authoritative estimates have been released since then, though analysts citing leaked official figures put such incidents at 127,000 in 2008.

Since February, Messrs. Hu and Zhou have called for tighter restrictions on the Internet, which provides a conduit for people to share anger at government policies and malfeasance and learn about unrest.........

......... The violence in Zengcheng, a town of about 800,000 near Guangzhou, began Friday night when security personnel pushed to the ground Wang Lianmei, a 20-year-old pregnant street vendor from the western province of Sichuan, as they tried to clear her stall from the road, according to state media. A crowd of migrant workers began attacking security guards and police with stones and bricks, as rumors spread that Ms. Wang had been injured and her husband, 28-year-old Tang Xuecai, killed, the state media reports said.

Berikut ini adalah videonya dari Youtube:

Ingatan kita kembali ke tahun 2007-2008, dimana Cina ditimpa banyak kerusuhan-kerusuhan. Andaikata bubble properti/konstruksi pecah bersama-sama dengan perlambatan ekonomi dunia, kerusuhan yang lebih parah sangat mungkin terjadi. Buruh-buruh pabrik yang ikut melambat (menurunkan produksinya), atau bangkrut karena overleverage dan tidak mampu bayar hutangnya, ditambah buruh-buruh migran di sektor konstruksi yang diPHK, punya potensi yang lebih besar dari pada buruh-buruh pabrik yang memberontak akibat gaji yang tidak cukup. Statistik menunjukkan adanya kenaikkan kerusuhan sosial dari tahun 2006 sampai 2008 dari 60.000 kasus di tahun 2006 menjadi 127.000 kasus di tahun 2008.

Sulit untuk meramalkan alur yang akan dilewati Cina dimasa. Banyak orang berpikir bahwa Cina akan menempuh alur Amerika Serikat di tahun 30an, dimana setelah depressi akhirnya US menjadi super power dunia dan US dollar menjadi mata-uang dunia. Maksudnya nantinya Yuan akan menjadi mata-uang dunia. Memang Cina punya persamaannya dengan US dimasa itu. Seperti misalnya Cina punya sumber mineral dan bahan baku di Inner Mongolia, yang memungkinkan Cina relatif tidak banyak bergantung pada sumber dari negara lain. Kata relatif tidak banyak bergantung saya beri penekanan karena sebenarnya Cina masih bergantung pada negara lain.

Perbedaannya dengan US dimasa tahun 30an itu adalah bahwa perekonomian US bukan perokonomian yang dikontrol oleh pemerintah dan kebebasan berusaha lebih luas di US. Lagi pula kemenangan sekutu dan pembentukan IMF membuat US dollar bisa dengan cepat mendunia. Faktor keberuntungan ada di pihak US dollar dimasa itu. Apakah Yuan akan punya keberuntungan yang sama? Mungkin tidak.

Jalur lain adalah jalur Jepang dengan the lost decade nya. Bertahun-tahun Cina harus berada dalam masa koreksi deflasi. Ide ini didasari oleh persamaan kondisi Jepang (1960 – 1990) dengan Cina, yaitu rakyatnya yang belum berorientasi pada konsumsi, ekonomi berpaham sebagai mesin eksport, pertumbuhan yang tinggi dan bubble di sektor properti serta bubble kapasitas produksi. Dan yang lebih penting lagi, dengan ketidak-bijaksanaan pemerintah menerapkan ketentuan 1 anak, membuat demografi Cina terancam menjadi demografi menua seperti Jepang.

Dipihak lain, Cina dan Jepang berbeda dalam hal sistem pemerintahannya, jumlah penduduknya. Lagi pula Cina, secara GDP masih belum mentok, alias masih punya potensi tumbuh. Jadi andaikata deflasi terjadi di Cina, mungkin masanya lebih pendek dari Jepang.

Walaupun mungkin lebih pendek dari Jepang, koreksi di Cina akan memakan waktu yang lama dan menyakitkan. Seperti yang dibaratkan oleh Jim Channos – seorang hedge fund manager terkemuka, bahwa bubble properti di Cina 1000 kali lebih besar dari Dubai, dampaknya terhadap perekonomian duniapun 1000 kali Dubai. Untuk Cina sendiri dampaknya akan berat. Tetapi jangan kuatir dengan perbandingan 1000 Dubai, karena Dubai sendiri kecil dibanding dunia. (Bersambung.........)

Catatan EOWI: Kisah PPUPCZF kemungkinan tidak hadir di hari minggu, melainkan akan diundurkan ke hari Senin atau selasa. Harap pencinta PPUPCZF maklum.

Disclaimer: Ekonomi (dan investasi) bukan sains dan tidak pernah dibuktikan secara eksperimen; tulisan ini dimaksudkan sebagai hiburan dan bukan sebagai anjuran berinvestasi oleh sebab itu penulis tidak bertanggung jawab atas segala kerugian yang diakibatkan karena mengikuti informasi dari tulisan ini. Akan tetapi jika anda beruntung karena penggunaan informasi di tulisan ini, EOWI dengan suka hati kalau anda mentraktir EOWI makan-makan.