DOLLAR DICARI?

Saat ini banyak artikel investasi yang membahas tentang emas dan menerangkan bagaimana emas akan naik. Contohnya adalah pada link ini: http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_08/bking091709.html, atau ini http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/galland091809.html. Dan untuk US$, saya sangat sulit menjumpai artikel yang membahas bagaimana US$ akan naik. Malah yang ada adalah yang nadanya sebaliknya. Dengan kata lain, dollar akan jatuh. Sentimen terhadap US dollar sudah sangat rendah.

Tetapi dibalik itu semua, ada beberapa berita mengindikasikan adanya peminat-peminat baru terhadap US dollar terutama pemerintah Eropa. Misalnya Jerman, Austria, Beligia, Spanyol, dan Canada mau mengeluarkan bond dalam US dollar . Hal ini merupakan fenomena yang menarik. Karena Jerman sudah 5 tahun tidak mengeluarkan bond berbasis US$. Canada sudah 10 tahun ini tidak mengeluarkan bond dalam US dollar. Bahkan Robert Mugabe, menginstruksikan untuk memindahkan asset-asset Zimbabwe ke dalam US dollar. Berikut ini adalah beritanya dari Bloomberg.

Governments Lead $22 Billion in Sales of Dollar Bonds (Update1)
By Caroline Hyde and Anchalee Worrachate
Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Germany and Austria led governments and companies in Europe selling $21.7 billion of bonds in the U.S. currency this week to take advantage of the reduced cost of exchanging the proceeds back into euros.

The sales were the most since February, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, and also allowed nations including Spain and Belgium to attract a wider range of investors at a time when they need money to fund fiscal-stimulus programs amid the deepest recession since the 1930s.

Germany Considers Second Dollar-Bond Sale This Year (Update1)
By Anchalee Worrachate
Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Germany may issue dollar bonds for the second time this year, according to the head of the nation’s finance agency, as the government sells a record amount of debt to haul its economy out of the recession.

The sale would follow a $4 billion offering of three-year securities on Sept. 14, the country’s first in dollars since its debut issue in 2005. The notes cost 25 basis points less than they would have in euros, Carl Heinz Daube, the head of the Federal Finance Agency, said today.

CVS LeadsDollar Bond Sales on Busiest Day This Year (Update1)
By John Detrixhe and Bryan Keogh
Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- CVS Caremark Corp. and Vale SA are leading at least $17.4 billion of dollar bond offerings on what may be the busiest day for issuers this year as stocks rallied.

CVS, the largest U.S. drugstore chain, sold $1.5 billion of 30-year bonds in its biggest sale since May 2007, while iron-ore maker Vale is raising $1 billion of 10-year debt in its first dollar offering since 2006. At least 22 companies or countries including Belgium, the greatest number of borrowers in a day this year, are offering bonds to investors today.

Everyone Is Now Selling Dollar Bonds
By: Tyler Durden Friday, September 18, 2009 1:56 PM
The Fed's scheme to destroy the dollar is taking the world by storm with everyone now taking advantage of the soon to be issued $100 trillion Federal Reserve Note, and issuing wallops of dollar denominated bonds. Robert Mugabe gets the memo last and launches an all out campaign to convert all Z$ based securities into US Dollars. And with that the wholesale debasement of all US dollar debt is off to the races. From Bloomberg:

Germany and Austria led governments and companies in Europe selling $21.7 billion of bonds in the U.S. currency this week to take advantage of the reduced cost of exchanging the proceeds back into euros.

The sales were the most since February, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, and also allowed nations including Spain and Belgium to attract a wider range of investors at a time when they need money to fund fiscal-stimulus programs amid the deepest recession since the 1930s.

European nations sold $10.4 billion of bonds in the U.S. currency this week, the most since Bloomberg began compiling the data in 1999 and beating the previous record of $9.2 billion in January. Sales by the governments, as well as companies including The Hague, Netherlands-based Royal Dutch Shell Plc, added to the $358 billion of issuance in 2009, up 38 percent from last year, Bloomberg data show.

Germany's $4 billion three-year bond issue on Sept. 14, its first deal in the U.S. currency since 2005, came as the nation plans to sell 346 billion euros ($506 billion) of debt this year, the most ever and almost half of it in bonds.

The government may issue more dollar bonds "if the arbitrage opportunity is as good as it is today," Daube said.

Central bank "arbitrage" proceeds are no doubt used to purchase Kindles, houses built by Toll Brothers, and iPhones. And it continues:

Belgium's $1 billion sale of five-year bonds on Sept. 8 also took advantage of the relative cost of raising dollars versus euros, according to Anne LeClercq, head of the treasury and capital markets division of the nation's debt agency in Brussels. The nation plans to also sell 30.5 billion euros of domestic bonds and 3 billion euros of notes to foreign investors this year.

Austria sold $1.5 billion of three-year bonds. Martha Oberndorfer, managing director of the Austrian Federal Financing Agency, declined to comment on the sale beyond the government's press release. Spain issued $2.5 billion of three-year bonds Sept. 9.

Canada to issue first U.S. dollar bond in decade
Paul Vieira, Financial Post
Friday, August 28, 2009
OTTAWA -- Canada plans to issue up to US$3-billion in U.S.-dollar-denominated bonds -- the first foreign-currency global debt issue in more than a decade.

The U.S.-dollar bond issue would provide funds to augment the country's foreign exchange reserves and meet requirements to support lending by the International Monetary Fund, the Department of Finance said Friday. A department spokesman said the bond offering could be as large as US$3-billion. There are no details about timing, other than it could be done "shortly."

Saya tidak terlalu heran kalau pemerintah Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, India, Saudi Arabia atau Maroko menjual bond dalam US dollar, karena mata uang negara-negara ini tidak laku di pasar. Akan tetapi Jerman, Belgia, Spanyol atau Austria yang punya Euro? Bukankah mereka bisa menjual bond berbasis Euro.

Apapun yang ada dalam pikiran para pengambil keputusan di negara Eropa barat dan Canada, tidak menjadi soal karena yang penting buat kita adalah melihat adanya permintaan baru terhadap US dollar. Jumlahnya cukup besar. Seperti Jerman saja, rencananya tahun ini akan mengeluarkan surat hutang sebesar kurang lebih $ 500 milyar dan sebagian dalam US dollar. Itu jumlah yang banyak. Ini akan membuat US dollar menguat.

Hanya saja penguatan US dollar ini bisa dimentahkan oleh the Fed. Kalau the Fed yang membeli bond-bond yang dikeluarkan negara-negara Eropa dan Canada ini, maka permintaan baru terhadap US dollar bisa diimbangin dengan pasokan baru dari the Fed. The Fed harus turun tangan langsung. Bank komersial atau bank investasi kemungkinannya kecil mau terjun, itu kenyataannya yang akan kita bahas lain waktu.



TEKNIKAL
Penguatan US dollar mungkin sudah dimulai. Dengan kata lain nilai 76.01 pada indeks US$ di akhir perdagangan hari Jumat 18 Sept. 09, bisa jadi adalah akhir dari primary wave 2 yang kita tunggu-tunggu. Pada ETF dollar indeks UUP, nampak volume yang tinggi bersamaan dengan penguatan UUP (Chart-1). Level USD indeks 76.01 itu tidak jauh dari support 75.89. Ini yang membuat saya berani mengatakan bahwa akhir dari P2 punya peluang yang besar. Kita lihat saja perkembangannya nanti. Bisa saja 76.01 ini bukan akhir dari P2.


Chart 1 (Klik Chart untuk memperbesar)

Secara bersamaan emas dan perak membentur dan berkutat di resistancenya, masing-masing di $1000/oz (GLD di $100) dan perak di $17.26 (lihat Chart-2 dan Chart-3). Nampaknya rally emas dan perak yang diwakili oleh EFT GLD dan SLV, pengikutnya berkurang dan membentuk negative divergence pada volumenya. Saya meragukan kelangsungan rally logam mulia ini untuk periode Agustus 2009 – Maret 2010.


Chart 2 (Klik Chart untuk memperbesar)


Chart 3 (Klik Chart untuk memperbesar)


Jakarta 21 September 2009

Disclaimer: Ekonomi (dan investasi) bukan sains dan tidak pernah dibuktikan secara eksperimen; tulisan ini dimaksudkan sebagai hiburan dan bukan sebagai anjuran berinvestasi oleh sebab itu penulis tidak bertanggung jawab atas segala kerugian yang diakibatkan karena mengikuti informasi dari tulisan ini. Akan tetapi jika anda beruntung karena penggunaan informasi di tulisan ini, EOWI dengan suka hati kalau anda mentraktir EOWI makan-makan.