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Doa pagi dan sore

Ya Allah......, sesungguhnya aku berlindung kepada Engkau dari bingung dan sedih. Aku berlindung kepada Engkau dari lemah dan malas. Aku berlindung kepada Engkau dari pengecut dan kikir. Dan aku berlindung kepada Engkau dari tekanan hutang, pajak, pembuat UU pajak dan kesewenang-wenangan manusia.

Ya Allah......ampunilah aku, ibu bapakku, orang yang masuk ke rumahku dengan beriman dan semua orang yang beriman laki-laki dan perempuan. Dan janganlah Engkau tambahkan bagi orang-orang yang zalim dan para penarik pajak serta pembuat UU pajak selain kebinasaan".

Amiiiiin
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Wednesday, September 16, 2015

The System Can Meltdown Very Quickly



A Conversation between Tekoa DaSilva and Jim Rickards
(dan komentar EOWI)
Beberapa waktu lalu seorang pembaca EOWI menyebutkan nama Jim Rickard, dan menanyakan apakah EOWI pernah membaca bukunya yang berjudul “Currency War”, serta apakah posisi EOWI berada pada kubu yang sama dengan Jim Rickard.
Nama Jim Rickard, saat ini menjadi celebrity di dunia investment. Beberapa bukunya menjadi best sellers. Dan istilah currency war menjadi sangat popular dan menjadi jargon di kalangan dunia investasi.
Saya coba untuk membaca 2 bukunya, Currency Wars dan The Death of Money. Tetapi baru beberapa bab, saya menjadi bosan dan kehilangan rasa ketertarikan. Penyebabnya adalah basis/dasar dari kisah yang ditulis Jim Rickard yaitu teori konspirasi. Saya tidak terlalu percaya terhadap teori konspirasi. Yang kedua, adalah adanya promosi dirinya sebagai pakar di bidang segala macam tetek-bengek yang ada di teori konspirasi di atas.
Saat ini Jim Rickard bekerja sebagai editor salah satu economic news letter yang diterbitkan oleh Agora Financial. Ia mempromosikan teknik yang dikatakannya sangat ampuh benama “Impact System”, sistem yang ciptakan untuk CIA.
Kita ikuti saja tulisan yang saya copy dari DailyReckoning.com.

Tekoa Da Silva: Jim, you are the author of New York Times best-seller, The Death of Money. In reviewing your work, I see a lot of events surfacing in the world that you seem to have foreshadowed in your writings.
I’d like to ask you about those items, but for the person joining us for the first time, can you tell us a little bit about your professional background -- how you went from working in the legal profession to now being a financial and global economic expert?
Jim Rickards: Sure Tekoa. Well, at this point, the resume is kind of a long one. So, I won’t kind of go through every twist and turn. I am a lawyer by training. But before I went to law school, I got a graduate degree in International Economics from the School of Advanced International Studies. Tim Geithner was one of my fellow alumni from SAIS -- the School of Advanced International Studies. It’s well-known as the intellectual training ground for the IMF. It’s a school where a lot of people go if you want to work for the IMF.
They take a lot of graduates and professors at SAIS as IMF officials who come over because they’re all in Washington, D.C. The IMF is right around the corner, just a few blocks from the school, and so they have IMF officials come in as adjunct. So it’s an intellectual symbiosis between the School of Advanced International Studies and the IMF and that is where I went to graduate school in economics.
Now interestingly, my class was the last class to be taught about gold as a monetary asset. I graduated in 1974. A lot of people think the world went off the gold standard in 1971 when Nixon gave his famous speech but that’s not quite correct.
If you listen to what Nixon actually said (interested viewers can find the video on YouTube), he didn’t say we’re going off the gold standard. He said, “I am temporarily suspending redemption of dollars for gold and the ability of our trading partners to take their dollars and cash them in for gold.”
But he used the word “temporary” and I recently had an occasion to speak to Paul Volcker about it because Paul was one of the people in the room when that happened. There was a small group that went up to Camp David. There was President Nixon, John Connolly, Secretary of the Treasury, Arthur Burns, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Paul Volcker who was Deputy Secretary of the Treasury and actually another friend of mine, Ken Dam. Ken very kindly offered a jacket commentary in The Death of Money but people who don’t know Ken should know that he was at Camp David that weekend.
But what Nixon actually said -- and Paul Volcker confirmed this when I spoke to him -- is that they didn’t think they were going off the gold standard. They thought they were calling a time-out. They thought this was a temporary suspension until the major global powers could get together and come up with new ‘rules of the game,’ kind of rewrite the system and that they might get back to a gold standard.
Now it would have been at a different gold price. Clearly, the dollar needed to be devalued and that’s actually what happened in December. So the Nixon speech was August ’71. December ’71 was the Smithsonian Agreement and at that time, the dollar was devalued. The official price of gold was raised to about $42 an ounce from $35 an ounce. So that was a 20% devaluation of the dollar and we were still on the gold standard at the time. But you still couldn’t redeem.
So the joke about US policy was -- instead of not selling you gold at $35, we won’t sell it to you at $42.
So the joke about US policy was -- instead of not selling you gold at $35, we won’t sell it to you at $42. The US wasn’t redeeming either way, but officially the price had gone up and we kind of fumbled and stumbled our way through the next three or four years. There were a series of International Monetary conferences conducted, studies, and working groups under the auspices of the IMF. The world wasn’t sure -- would they go back to fixed exchange rates? Would they move to floating exchange ranges? Would you have sort of dirty floats and pegs? Would there be a gold standard? Would there not be a gold standard?
That was all unclear until 1975 when the IMF finally broke the link to gold and demonetized gold. Well, my year was 1974. So I actually studied gold when it was still a monetary asset and I was a 25-year-old grad student in economics. But my professors were people in their 50s or older who were the young guns in the early 1950s at the origin of the IMF.
So I was being taught by people who ran the Bretton Woods system in the 1950s and 1960s as scholars and technical analysts, and they were my professors. So I would say anyone who is younger than I am who knows anything about gold is either self-taught or they went to mining college, because it literally stopped being taught in 1974, 1975.
So part of what I try to do in my books is to reintroduce some of that education. But then I went to law school. I started my career at Citibank. I was there for about 10 years. I worked for one of the primary dealers in US government securities.
Today it has been bought by larger banks but it’s now part of RBS -- Royal Bank of Scotland. My old firm is now the primary dealer in RBS. Then I worked famously at Long Term Capital Management, the hedge fund. I did a few other things: worked for Bruce Kovner at Caxton and became an author and also after 9/11, an adviser on financial threats and financial warfare to the US intelligence community.
So a little bit of an eclectic career, but my books, Currency Wars and The Death of Money, are a good chance to bring a lot of that perspective and knowledge and learning experience to an older audience who cares about their net worth and a younger audience who have not studied a lot of these things. So people in their 20s and 30s, all this happened before their time, but they can read the books and get some of that flavor.
Tekoa Da Silva: Jim, the price of gold as of late has been weak. That weakness was pronounced following an announcement from the People’s Bank of China that their exchange reserves holdings were lower than the investment community was expecting. What were your thoughts when you saw that release come out?

Jim Rickards: Well, a couple of things. First of all, I did predict this in my book. The Death of Money came out in 2014 but of course I was writing it in 2013. It was published in 2014. But in the book I said that the Chinese would likely update their gold reserves in 2015 which is exactly what has happened because they’re on a sort of six-year tempo. They did it in 2003, then six years of radio silence. They updated in 2009.
Six more years of radio silence. They updated it in 2015. So there’s kind of a precedent, and they don’t like to break the mold so to speak. But I don’t know if it will be another six years next time.
The Chinese are trying to play nice with the IMF because they want the yuan included in the basket of currencies that’s used to determine the value of the world money
The Chinese are trying to play nice with the IMF because they want the yuan, their currency, included in the basket of currencies that’s used to determine the value of the world money, which is the special drawing right, or the SDR, that’s printed by the IMF.
So China wants to get into that club. But by joining any club, you have to play by the rules. The club says wear a suit and tie -- you wear a suit and tie. And in this case, the IMF club says you have to be a little bit more transparent.
China is doing this in an effort to be transparent, so they may update their gold reserves more frequently than this six-year tempo I just described as a way of showing the IMF that they’re ready to be fully or at least partially transparent members in the International Monetary System.
Having said that, the 604-ton update was China going from 1054 tons, which was a lie, to 1658 tons which was another lie, but they’ve updated the lie. When I say lie, I mean they’re not transparent and this is also explained in my book The Death of Money. They have three sovereign wealth funds or government entities, government portfolios if you will. One is the People’s Bank of China.
Komentar EOWI: Cina mungkin tidak transparan untuk cadangan emasnya. Yang sebenarnya, tidak ada kewajiban Cina untuk melaporkan isi perutnya kepada publik. Demikian juga US, apakah the Fed transparan dengan cadangan emasnya?
Cina tidak hanya menumpuk emas, tetapi juga tembaga, dan logam-logam lainnya. Dengan adanya surplus perdagangan dan kebanjiran US dollar, tidak terlalu mengherankan jika Cina melakukan diversifikasi assetnya ke asset-asset yang tangible.
Bahwa kemudian penumpukan asset-asset tangible oleh Cina membuat sektor ini berubah menjadi bubble, itu persoalan lain yang harus dihadapi para pemain di sektor ini.
Suatu hal yang bisa dicatat, biasanya jika pemerintah/bank sentral mulai masuk dan ikut berspekulasi, maka kejadian tersebut bisa dijadikan sebagai indikator akhir dari bubble. Dan bubble tidak mengempis, tetapi meledak.
So that’s the one that updated the reserve position and reported the 604 additional tons of gold. But the other one is CIC, China Investment Corporation, which is a sovereign wealth fund, and the third is the most mysterious and biggest of all, which is SAFE. SAFE stands for State Administration on Foreign Exchange and what they do buy the gold and then every now and then for bookkeeping entry, they flip it over to the People’s Bank of China and then the People’s Bank of China updates their reserve balances.
So I’m not saying the People’s Bank of China is lying about their gold. That is how much gold they have. But whether to ignore how much gold that SAFE has off the books is the question. I think it’s reasonable to estimate at least 3000 tons, maybe more. There’s reason to think it could be more. How do we know that? I mean I’m not just guessing by the way. We know mining output is about 450 tons a year; it has been for a number of years.
We know Hong Kong imports run between 700-1000 tons a year. So just combine those two sources. But let’s just say there’s about 1300 tons a year between Hong Kong imports and mining output that we know about.
Now I also know, because I’ve been in China and spoken to secure logistics people, that some gold is being brought in completely off the books; actually over land using People’s Liberation Army assets, probably coming in from Kazakhstan, maybe Russia. The source is not clear but there’s some additional gold coming in. But let’s just take what we know about it without speculating too much. So let’s say there’s about 1300 tons of gold coming in. This has been going on for five years. So that’s 6500 tons of gold that we know about, not counting what we don’t know about.
Now, what we don’t know is how much of that gold is going into private hands and how much is going to the government. For the People’s Bank of China, it’s unclear. I assume 50-50. I could be wrong. But in the absence of better information, that’s a good first estimate. So it looks like 6500-plus tons have come in and assuming 50% of that is going to the government -- there’s over 3000 tons the government added that the People’s Bank of China has not reported. They just park it in SAFE in the meantime.
So we can be certain China has a lot more gold. But if the price of gold went down because people were expecting China’s reserves to be a lot higher and they turned out to be less -- then I cannot dispute the price. But that’s no reason to mark down the price of gold, because China does have a lot more gold and we know it.
The declining price of gold by the way is apparent if you make the dollar the measure of all value. When people say gold went down, I say, “Well no, it didn’t. Gold is just gold. It just sits there.” So if you say the dollar is the measure of all value, then yes, gold went down.
Komentar EOWI: Jatuhnya harga emas dan komoditi lainnya adalah akhir dari bubble di sektor komoditi dan emas yang berlangsung dari tahun 2000 – 2011. Pemerintah Cina mau borong emas, mencoba meniup untuk menggembungkan kembali sektor komoditi dan emas, tetapi kekuatan pasar lebih besar. Itu sebabnya harga emas jatuh bersama komoditi.
Seperti halnya bank-bank sentral Eropa yang menjuali emasnya, Bank of England di tahun 1999 – 2002, National Bank of Swiss tahun 2000 – 2005 tidak membuat harga emas tertekan, malah sebaliknya.
But if you make gold the measure of value, to me what really happened is the dollar went up. In other words, the low dollar price of gold is really a strong dollar phenomenon more so than a weak gold phenomenon. You get more gold for your dollar. So you can say gold went down but it is equally logical to say the dollar went up. We have a stronger dollar.
Komentar EOWI: Pertanyaannya yang seharusnya dilontarkan juga adalah: kenapa US dollar menguat?
Basis kepercayaan EOWI, penguatan US dollar adalah karena monetary deflation dari US dollar. Spekulan dan investor keluar dari komoditi dan mencari safe heaven di US dollar.
So that’s how I view it and my basis is that gold is not the only thing that has a lower dollar price by weight. Copper, wheat, corn, steel, lumber, and iron ore all do. Look at commodities around the world. Look at all the other currencies, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and Japanese yen.
Every one of them is “down,” if you will, against the dollar. What’s the common denominator? It’s not that the price is down. It’s that the dollar is up. We’re living in a world of king dollars.
But what is that? That’s the definition of deflation. When you get more for your money, when the dollar is worth more, and goods in dollar terms cost less, that is what deflation is.
But think about it from the Central Bank and Janet Yellen’s point of view. She wants inflation. She told us that. It’s not a secret. She publicly states that she wants inflation. We’re getting deflation. She’s threatening to raise interest rates which should add more deflation. So how does that work?
The answer is that it doesn’t work. I said last year that the Fed would not raise interest rates in 2015, and I think we’re going to get to 2016 and they still won’t be able to raise interest rates because of the power of deflation.
So I look at the commodities complex now including gold, and what I see is not that the prices are down, although nominally they are. To me, it’s a strong dollar story which is not sustainable, because the strong dollar is killing the US economy.
Komentar EOWI: Bukan membunuh ekonomi US tetapi memaksa semua negara menata ekonominya kembali.  Periode deflasi akan melahirkan teknologi baru, cara baru dalam menghasilkan jasa dan barang, kebiasaan dan model bisnis baru yang lebih effisien dan kompetitif. Contohnya adalah untuk sektor retail ada toko online, untuk transportasi ada taxi online Uber dan Gojek, untuk sektor hotel ada AirBnB, dan untuk perpustakaan ada Google, dan dimasa mendatang adan muncul model-model bisnis lainnya yang akan mengancam model bisnis lama. Bisnis yang tidak effisien dan tidak bisa bersaing akan mati.
TD: Jim, in The Death of Money, you spoke about the channels of passage that the People’s Bank of China needs to use in order to accumulate their gold position, in that the pricing environment is sensitive to a larger picture of global currency rearrangement. Some might suggest manipulation goes hand in hand with that. What are your thoughts?
Komentar EOWI: Seharusnya pertanyaannya adalah: Kenapa Cina perlu mengumpulkan emas. Seandainya memang perlu, kapan waktunya?
Bank of England melepas banyak cadangan emasnya tahun 1999 - 2002. Sebanyak 395 ton terjual dengan harga rata-rata US$ 275 per oz. Antara tahun 2000 - 2005, National Bank of Switzerland menjual 1,300 tonn emas dengan harga rata-rata US$ 350 per oz.  Banyak bank-bank sentral lainnya juga melepas cadangan emasnya dengan sebab-sebab tertentu.
JR: Well, you can call it manipulation (and it is in a way) but it’s also policy. Countries are very powerful. Countries have interest rate policies, foreign exchange policies, tax policies and they have a view on gold. They don’t talk about it, and again you can say it’s manipulation, but it’s really just the countries implementing their individual policies. Now China’s view of gold is fairly straightforward. They have $4 trillion equivalent in reserves. The vast majority of that is denominated in US dollars.
Some of it is gold. Some of it is euros. Some of it is other things. But the vast majority of it is US dollars. The vast majority of those US dollars are in US government securities. So when people say China wants to get rid of the dollar as a global reserve currency, that’s nonsense. The dollar has no greater friend. China wants a strong dollar because they own so many of them. If you had $4 trillion, you would want a strong dollar too.
The problem is the United States doesn’t want a strong dollar, but we’re getting one right now. I call this “Mick Jagger economics” (of the Rolling Stones), where, “You Can’t Always Get What You Want.” The Fed wants inflation but can’t get it for the time being. They will get it eventually but it’s going to take longer than they thought.
But in the meantime, China wants a strong dollar because they own so many and a weak yuan because that helps their exports. The US wants a weaker dollar to encourage inflation but we’re not getting it. So that’s going to tell us something about the future of Fed policy. But China fears that the US will ultimately be successful in getting inflation.
They believe the Fed will eventually get the inflation it wants. That’s going to reduce the value of their dollar assets. If you inflate the dollar by 10% -- 2% per year for five years -- that’s a little over 10% with compounding. If China has $4 trillion and you devalue that by 10%, you’re moving $400 billion of wealth from China to the US because the debt we owe them is worth less and we can pay it off in cheaper dollars.
So they’re worried about that and they’re vulnerable. People say, “Oh, they’re going to dump US Treasuries.” No, that’s nonsense also. They’re not going to do that. They couldn’t. First of all, the market is not that big. The US Treasury market is a deep liquid market but it’s not that deep. It’s not that liquid.
There’s no way China could offload a lot of treasury securities without it immediately coming to the world’s notice. If it became malicious, a form of financial threat, the president could stop it by executive order. But why would China do that? It would be devaluing their number one asset. It’s like setting your own house on fire. They wouldn’t want to do that.
But they can do something else. At the margin, as they acquire additional reserves through exports, through their current account surplus instead of buying more dollars, they can buy gold and that’s exactly what they’re doing.
They’ve got this big pile of dollars and they’re worried about the dollar being devalued. So what they’re doing is acquiring a big pile of gold.
They’ve got this big pile of dollars and they’re worried about the dollar being devalued. So what they’re doing is acquiring a big pile of gold. So now when you have dollars and gold, you have a hedge position. If the dollar remains strong or gets stronger, the gold is not going to do very much.
But if we do get inflation and devalue the dollar, they’re going to gain on the gold because obviously gold will go up with inflation. The Chinese are not stupid. They’re not speculators. They’re hedging the dollars. One of them is always going to win.
So they need to buy more gold, and also, a lot of gold investors say China is going to bash the dollar and come out with a gold-backed currency and the price of gold is going to go to the moon. Also nonsense. China doesn’t want that. As I explained, they want a strong dollar, and for now, they need to buy more gold. If you needed to buy gold, would you want a high price or a low price? You would want a low price because you’re still buying.
Since they’re still acquiring, they want a cheap price of gold. So there are a lot of forces at play in the world. There are also people who think the Chinese are naively trying to destroy the dollar or naively trying to help gold investors, but no, China is out to help China. They’re not out to help you. They’re not out to help me. They’re not out to help gold. They’re out to help themselves.
What that means is they have to acquire a lot of physical gold. And what’s interesting about that, as we all know, is there’s not that much physical gold around. So I personally like to buy physical gold. I think when the system breaks down (which I do expect) and the price of gold begins to skyrocket, people will say, “Oh, I will go out and get my gold then.” Guess what. You may not be able to find it. The time to get your gold is now.
Komentar EOWI: Memang tidak banyak emas beredar, tetapi lebih langka lagi harimau Sumatera. Kenapa orang harus lari ke emas ketika ada krisis? Kenapa tidak ke berlian, atau harimau Sumatera? Apa yang membuat orang terpaksa lari ke emas?
Pada masa krisis, bank-bank menjelang bangkrut seperti di Yunani sekarang. Yang terpikir pertama kali adalah mengambil uangnya di bank. Sayangnya uang yang dimiliki bank jumlahnya tidak cukup untuk memenuhi klaim nasabahnya karena sistem fractional reserve leanding. Jadi cash adalah asset yang pertama akan melambung ketika krisis debt deflation datang. Bukan emas.
TD: Jim, in your mind what does that look like when the system begins to break down and gold behaves differently in US dollar term price?
JR: Well, people like to criticize the dollar and they say it’s not backed by anything and they will say the same thing about bitcoin. Bitcoin is another form of money, another currency and they go, “Well, I don’t like bitcoin because it’s not backed by anything.”
Well, guess what. The dollar and bitcoin and all other forms of paper money or digital money are backed by one thing, which is confidence. If people think it’s money, it’s money. If you have confidence in the form of money, then it has value.
So right now the dollar and the bitcoin are backed by confidence but let’s talk about the dollar in particular. The problem with confidence is it’s very fragile. It can be lost very quickly and once you lose it, it’s very difficult to regain and I don’t think the Fed understands that.
I think the Fed takes the value of the dollar for granted. They assume that confidence will always be there. They assume that they can print as much money as they want, try to get as much inflation as they want and people won’t lose confidence in the dollar and I think that’s analytically and historically incorrect.
I would say that for now, yes, confidence is being maintained. But in a complex dynamic system, it’s a little bit like running a nuclear reactor. It can run well for a long period of time. But if you push one wrong button, the whole thing melts down catastrophically. You create a chain reaction and it melts down out of control.
In a complex dynamic system, it’s a little bit like running a nuclear reactor. It can run well for a long period of time. But if you push one wrong button, the whole thing melts down catastrophically.
It happens very quickly and the same thing is true of the dollar. Some set of circumstances, maybe something we can perceive, or something that we don’t perceive. It’s often the thing that you don’t see coming that gets you. But something could trigger this and the system is already unstable. It’s highly unstable.
But it’s chugging along. The confidence is being maintained. If it’s lost, it can melt down very quickly and that’s where gold -- all of a sudden, boom! The day will come and it may be up $200 an ounce in one day. Boom, the next day, another $200 an ounce.
Then people will be saying it’s a bubble, and it just starts to really go hyperbolic. That’s when the panic sets in. That’s when confidence in paper money is being lost as reflected in a higher dollar price for gold.
Komentar EOWI: Ketidak-percayaan terhadap uang kertas akan terjadi dimasa inflationary bukan deflationary. Nilai mata uang melorot pada saat inflasi (jumlah uang yang beredar bertambah dengan cepat). Pada saat itu kepercayaan terhadap uang kertas melorot. Tetapi ketika masa deflationary, uang yang beredar mengalami kontraksi, atau stagnan, tidak ada alasan untuk takut nilai uang kertas tersebut untuk melorot. Dan sebagai akibatnya, tidak alasan untuk mencari alternatif lain sebagai safe heaven.
At that point, the talk on TV will still be saying it has no intrinsic value. But it will have a life of its own and the price will go a lot higher. But at that point, you might not be able to get it. You might find that all the weak hands have already gotten rid of it. The strong hands are holding on to it, and you will call your dealer or they will say, “Sorry, I’m out of stock,” or you call them and they say, “We’re not making deliveries.”
Big guys, people who deal in tons, may be able to get some of it but may not. The unallocated gold holders, the LBMA contracts -- they’re going to call their banks and say, “I want to allocate it. I want to take physical delivery.” The banks are going to say, “Sorry, we don’t have it. We’re going to send you a check for the price difference and terminate the contract.” People are going to find that the paper claims are just papers. So my advice is well, again, what are you waiting for?
Komentar EOWI: Seandainya ada fractional reserve lending di bank-bank emas (tempat penyimpanan emas seperti Pert Mint), rasa panik para nasabah bank pemilik emas  harus dipicu dulu oleh berita bahwa bank-bank emas sudah berlebihan dalam meminjamkan emas mereka.
Apakah dalam waktu dekat ini ada yang bisa memicu ketidak percayaan para pemilik account emas sehingga mereka berbondong-bondong menarik emasnya dari bank emas?
Sejarah mencatat, dimasa krisis moneter banyak bank yang bangkrut, sehingga perlu menariki dana dari rekening seawal mungkin. Untuk bank emas, krisis semacam apa yang bisa membuat bank emas tidak likwid atau pailit?
Saya tidak tahu jawabannya. Mungkin juga Jim Rickards.
Tekoa Da Silva: Jim, there’s one more question I want to ask you, and then there’s a passage in your book that you mentioned beforehand, that might be of interest to the reader.
What have you found to be the risk and the importance of telling the truth when we look at the political/economic stage globally?
Jim Rickards: Well, I would start by saying truth has sort of a ring of absolute moral and scientific certainty to it. So I try to do the best I can. I work hard. I do the analysis. I read a lot. I travel a lot. I talk to a lot of people. I give people the best analysis I can and I believe in it. I wouldn’t publish or say anything that I didn’t personally believe in. So it’s the truth as far as I know, but I don’t want to claim moral certitude.
But I’ve spoken to members of the board of governors of the Fed, reserve bank presidents, senior officials of the IMF, heads of state, and I’ve spoken to Nobel Prize-winning economists.
I have also spoken to Ben Bernanke recently in Korea one-on-one. We were in a small group of about 10 of us, and had a nice conversation with the former chairman, and what I find is that sometimes people will say things privately that they won’t say publicly.
Part of that has to do with institutional constraints. If a chairman says something pretty candid about gold, it could start a panic so they’re very aware of their institutional responsibilities. Other times, you feel like you’re in a club where you say things in the club that you might not say elsewhere.
As an example, I’m a writer, analyst, portfolio manager, and a public speaker. I’ve got to call it like I see it, but that doesn’t mean I have a perfect analysis or a perfect track record. But it does mean I’m working hard and trying to convey to people exactly what I see.
But I’m not a government official. I’m not the head of the IMF. I’m not on the board of governors. I’m not the reserve bank president. So I don’t have some of those responsibilities to avoid panicking people. What I’m trying to do is warn people about some of the threats out there because that’s the world we live in.
So there are a lot of dangers out there but I’ve never said be 100% in gold. When gold goes down, people beat me up. They say, “Jim, you’re an idiot because you said gold would go up.” But I never said 100% should be one’s allocation. I’ve said 10% and I still say 10%. To me that’s the right amount.
If you have 10% of your investable assets in gold, and gold goes down 20%, it’s only a 2% portfolio loss because if you have a 20% decline on 10% of your portfolio and everything else is even, your portfolio has only lost 2%. But if I’m right and gold goes up by multiples that could be your insurance against losses if everything else is melting down. So to me, if you don’t have gold in your portfolio, it’s like not having fire insurance on your house. You better hope your house doesn’t burn down.
If you don’t have gold in your portfolio, it’s like not having fire insurance on your house. You better hope your house doesn’t burn down.
Tekoa, there’s one other thing I just want to follow up on -- from my book, The Death of Money, because you’re in it. Readers who have read the book are familiar with it; but for some of our readers who might not have read the book, you did a fascinating Q&A with European Central Bank Chief Mario Draghi not that long ago at Harvard University. I commend you for asking a tough question of the head of the European Central Bank. But his answer was even more fascinating. I will just read parts of it quickly.
This is a quote from Mario Draghi answering a question from you, Tekoa Da Silva, where he says to you:
“You’re asking about gold to someone who has been the governor of the Bank of Italy. The Bank of Italy is the fourth largest owner of gold reserves in the world. I never thought it wise to sell gold, because for central banks, this is a reserve of safety. It is viewed by the country as such.”
In other words, here’s Mario Draghi, the second most powerful central banker in the world after Janet Yellen speaking to you, saying that gold is a reserve of safety. You don’t hear a central banker speaking that way very often. But I commend you for getting that quote and I was glad to be able to use it in my book as part of a longer explanation of the role of gold in the International Monetary System.
Tekoa Da Silva: Jim, I was honored by you’re having added that in there, and I’m very grateful to have the opportunity to be sitting down with you discussing it. Thank you very much.
Jim Rickards: Well, thank you. You’ve spoken to Mario Draghi. I’ve spoken to Ben Bernanke. So hopefully the readers will get a lot out of this interview because we’ve had some firsthand interactions. Thank you.
Tekoa Da Silva: In winding down, is there anything you think we may have missed?
Jim Rickards: I would say -- I know a lot of gold investors are very discouraged right now. We explained why the low dollar price of gold is just the inverse of the strong dollar. But I expect the dollar to get weaker. But I did also have an interesting conversation with Jim Rogers not long ago. Jim is a famous commodities trader, stock investor and analyst, one of the best in the world. He invests in all commodities and looks at emerging markets.
So he has been around longer than I have and knows more about commodities than anyone I know. But he made a very interesting observation. He said nothing goes through a [full up-cycle] without a 50% retracement somewhere along the way. So if you pick your base -- it could be $200 oz. gold or whatever you want (and I see gold going to $5000, $7000, $10,000 an oz. by the way).
Komentar EOWI: EOWI juga melihat emas akan ke level $5,000, $7,000 atau $10,000. Tetapi itu nanti 15 tahun lagi, pada saat commodity secular bull market kembali menguasai pasar investasi.
Tetapi dalam 5 tahun ke depan? EOWI pikir, emas akan ke level $600 akibat tekanan deflasi.
If you want to go back to a gold standard or you have a global financial panic and you need to restore confidence, that’s the price of gold you would need. That’s where gold has to be in order to avoid deflation in a world where you’re using any kind of gold standard. And that’s not a complicated equation. That’s kind of eighth grade math that anyone can do.
So let’s say gold is going to go from $200 oz. to $10,000 oz. or higher; what Jim says is that it never goes there in a straight line. Somewhere along the way it will go down 50%. So if you look at the August 2011 $1900 high, we’re down about 50% percent from there.
That’s the way commodities behave. But he also told me, “I’m not selling the gold I have. I will buy more around the $1000 level. My expectation is that it will go much, much higher from there, so there is no reason to be discouraged.”
So it’s a long game, and I’m personally buying gold.
TD: Jim, how can our readers follow your communications moving forward?
JR: Well my Twitter feed is very active. It’s @JamesGRickards, and I have my books, The Death of Money and Currency Wars. But I also have a newsletter, Rickards’ Strategic Intelligence.
Tekoa Da Silva: Jim Rickards -- thank you so much for sharing your comments with us.
Jim Rickards: Thanks, Tekoa.
Komentar EOWI: Menurut pandangan EOWI, sampai 5 tahun ke depan ekonomi global masih dalam periode deflasi. Kejayaan emas masih harus menunggu 10 – 15 tahun lagi, ketika inflasi kembali. Untuk saat ini.....US dollar cash adalah raja.
Sekian dulu semoga anda menikmati obrolan Jim Rickards dan komentar EOWI. Jaga tabungan dan investasi serta kesehatan anda baik-baik. Punya duit banyak akan percuma jika anda sakit-sakitan. Bahkan jika anda sakit, duit anda akan terkuras habis dalam sekejap untuk pengobatan.
 



Disclaimer: Ekonomi (dan investasi) bukan sains dan tidak pernah dibuktikan secara eksperimen; tulisan ini dimaksudkan sebagai hiburan dan bukan sebagai anjuran berinvestasi oleh sebab itu penulis tidak bertanggung jawab atas segala kerugian yang diakibatkan karena mengikuti informasi dari tulisan ini. Akan tetapi jika anda beruntung karena penggunaan informasi di tulisan ini, EOWI dengan suka hati kalau anda mentraktir EOWI makan-makan.

21 comments:

Anonymous said...

Pergi Google translate dulu....

Anonymous said...

Tp klo $ cash pas dituker nilainya jg turun krn seri lama. Gmn dong pak is?

Anonymous said...

Belum ada keputusan the fed, sampai malam ini kayanya galau juga mereka

Imam Semar said...

Dollar seri lama mending ditukar di Singapore aja.... :D

The Fed nggak naikin suku bunga, rupiah jeblok...., kalo naikin apa lagi.

Pagi-pagi lihat rupiah turun lagi walaupun the Fed nggak naikin suku bunga.

Reader said...

Untung Bang IS tinggal di Indonesia. Coba kalau di RRC, sudah masuk penjara sekarang karena mengeluarkan analisa yg memicu kepanikan dan kekhawatiran masyarakat.

:D :D :D

denmas said...

Sy baca2 ulang tulisan Bung IS th 2008, ada saran yg krg lebih sama "cash is the king".. krn khawatir dgn kekuatan perbankan indonesia.. nyatanya yg ditutup cm si century.. yg lain2 msh bisa bertahan smpi skg.. pertanyaannya untuk kali ini Bung IS "merevisi" pandangannya thd kekuatan perbankan indonesia.. akankah terbukti?.. pelajaran dari krismon 1998.. hy 20an bank ukuran kecil - medium yg benar2 ditutup.. yg lain bertahan smpi skg, ada pula yg diakuisisi/dimerger.. transaksi idr - usd pun masih bertahan.. tidak sampai ada pasar gelap nilai tukar spt di zaman 60an dan venezuela.. hy idr yg smpt dikorbankan bergerak spt yoyo.. mirip spt skg.. entah batas atasnya brp?.. BI akan cdrg membiarkan pasar yg menentukan.. spt yg dahulu.. menurut Bung IS, bgm sih sbnrnya karakteristik pasar finansial & riil kita?

Anonymous said...

Pak IS sejak ditundanya fed rate 17 september 2015, dollar mlh ngedrop sma rupiah dan emas bullish

apakah pak IS portofolionya mengalami perubahan? tetapkah bullish USD dan bearish gold?

analisa dan prediski pak IS saya screenshot loh, sapatau amnesia mendadak

#kodechi

Imam Semar said...

Kodechi,

Terlalu pagi untuk mengatakan bahwa angin berbalik arah.

Dengarkan PASFM,...kalau dana asing masih keluar, maka yang main, menaikkan Rp adalah lokal....dan pemain lokal adalah trader jangka pendek. Dan itu malah bisa menjadi momentum tambah US$.



wongkeren said...

ayo bingung khan..pegang usd atau gold?

Anonymous said...

hmmm klo kata PAS FM dana asing msh keluar dr instrumen keuangan di indonesia

menurut analisa pak IS kapankah the fed bkl naikan suku bunganya? apakah akhir tahun 2015?

anyway utk saat ini dollar index lg melemah, euro dan gbp menguat tajam

apakah eropa dan inggris akan mendiamkan saja penguatan mata uang mereka?

bukankah dunia sdng currency wars pak IS? termasuk china

Anonymous said...

Bung IS, renmenbi mempunyai berkecenderungan terus menguat terhadap rupiah. apakah renmenbi bisa dikatakan safe haven mengikuti singapur dollar untuk kita yang berada di indonesia. mengingat dimulai dari nilai tukar dibawah seribu sampai hari ini berkisar diangka dua ribuan.

Cheers =D

Anonymous said...

Pak IS sepertinya sikon udh mulai memanas antara amerika dan rusia

retorika dan drum perang mulai dipukul nyaring dr kedua belah pihak

ketika nanti terjadi perang dunia ke 3

apakah market akan menimbun USD ato Gold & Silver sbg safe haven saat itu?

#kodechi

Anonymous said...

Pak, bahas dong tentang annunaki, niphilim, dan alien.
Apa pandangan dari sudut religius tentang teori alien ini?

Anonymous said...

2-2 nya... jangan taruh semua telur dalam 1 keranjang...

Anonymous said...

USD 14510, hit sore ini

Anonymous said...

http://chirpstory.com/li/285855 Ternyata USA Berutang Ribuan Triliun Dollar ke Bangsa Indonesia, Ini Buktinya : @SBYudhoyono @jokowi @ZUL_Hasan @Prabowo08 Mas IS - bagaiMana artikel ini ?

Lestari Fbbb said...

Pak is..ini gimana sih pemerentah malah nambah utang 60 T lagi..ama bank dunia dan ADB..apa kebayar ??

Lestari Fbbb said...

Kayanya salah kamar ente tong..

Anonymous said...

Pak is,gimana dgn analogi emas dan kambing apa masih berlaku skrg?,hehehe

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Aris Setymin said...

KABAR BAIK!!!

Nama saya Aris. Saya ingin menggunakan media ini untuk mengingatkan semua pencari pinjaman sangat berhati-hati karena ada penipuan di mana-mana. Beberapa bulan yang lalu saya tegang finansial, dan putus asa, saya telah penipuan oleh beberapa pemberi pinjaman online. Saya hampir kehilangan harapan sampai Tuhan menggunakan teman saya yang merujuk saya ke pemberi pinjaman sangat handal disebut Ibu Cynthia meminjamkan pinjaman tanpa jaminan dari Rp800,000,000 (800 Juta) dalam waktu kurang dari 24 jam tanpa tekanan atau stres dengan tingkat bunga hanya 2%.

Saya sangat terkejut ketika saya memeriksa saldo rekening bank saya dan menemukan bahwa jumlah yang saya diterapkan untuk dikirim langsung ke rekening saya tanpa penundaan. Karena saya berjanji bahwa saya akan berbagi kabar baik sehingga orang bisa mendapatkan pinjaman mudah tanpa stres. Jadi, jika Anda membutuhkan pinjaman apapun, silahkan menghubungi dia melalui email: cynthiajohnsonloancompany@gmail.com dan oleh kasih karunia Allah dia tidak akan pernah mengecewakan Anda dalam mendapatkan pinjaman jika Anda mematuhi perintahnya.

Anda juga dapat menghubungi saya di email saya: arissetymin@gmail.com dan kehilangan Sety saya diperkenalkan dan diberitahu tentang Ibu Cynthia Dia juga mendapat pinjaman baru dari Ibu Cynthia Anda juga dapat menghubungi dia melalui email-nya: ladymia383@gmail.com sekarang, semua yang akan saya lakukan adalah mencoba untuk memenuhi pembayaran pinjaman saya yang saya kirim langsung ke rekening bulanan.